Forecasting: The Impact of Governance and Globalization
Based on The Economics Of Y2K
Abstract: The Tunnel Under Thesis
Planning and control are two traditional functions of management. Once a plan has been determined, it must be carried out. The cost involved in controlling the plan is dependent on the quality of the plan. The quality of the planning function depends largely on the ability to forecast events and trends with accuracy and precision.
Forecasting methodologies, such as qualitative analyses, time series analysis & projection, and econometric models, are widely used throughout U.S. businesses and governmental agencies.
The chaotic relationship of three key factors is likely to make traditional forecasting tools and methods increasingly unreliable:
* control of digital distribution
* security
* pollution
Tunneling & Veiling
The result of these three ingredients in the stew will likely result in a figurative, as well as literal tunneling underground. Another term for this type of activity is decentralization.
Control Of Digital Distribution
The forecast for digital distribution suggests that existing systems for controlling data communications and digital distribution are failing. As the owners of the traditional systems attempt to maintain control, they will actually be the driving force in developing underground technologies.
Examples include peer-to-peer networks and music swapping websites.
Security
When a government wages a war against drugs, or terror, or any other globally organized illicit activity, there is often a significant amount of collateral damage to their own citizens, to their infrastructure and even their system of governance.
The Patriot Act and the Homeland Security Department are examples of the U.S. Federal Government’s attempt to control based on their forecasting methods. However, the side-effects actually force all people, both good and bad, to decentralize their activities. The result is encrypted data tunnels and underground communication networks.
State governments are experiencing more difficulty controlling their tax receipts (in large part due to digital distribution of goods and services). As states try to control taxes based on your location, they will encourage the development of decentralized business systems.
This complicates the already inadequate and convoluted accounting systems in use by municipal government for over a century. For example, until 1985, many municipal governments did not have a fixed asset accounting system, nor did they have even an accurate inventory of all their assets. Therefore, the taxing authorities had no factual basis on which to tax their constituents.
Pollution
Pollution (greenhouse gases being a large threat) is causing irreversible climatic change. Some people consider the clearing of land to be a form of pollution. Whether you call it pollution or not, deforestation certainly compounds the global warming problem. Again, chaos theory suggests that meteorological forecasting will be affected in much the same way as economic forecasting. And, since the weather is so closely tied to the economy, the intensity in volatility is likely to be felt in both areas. [Note: although the Earth's average temperature may be rising slightly, the volatility for any given location is rising dramatically.]
Global warming, insect borne viri, nuclear fallout, reforms to flood insurance, and other weather related phenomena suggests a more literal tunneling under.