The Human Induced Climate Change Experiment

Research and Development Incorporating Complex Social-Ecological Feedback Loops Within a Dynamic, Non-Linear System

1. Introduction

The Earth functions as a dynamic climate system, governed by the flow and redistribution of thermal energy among its interlinked subsystems: the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface. Global warming arises from the accumulation of thermal energy within this system. The complexity and nonlinearity of these interactions have long been the domain of chaos theory, which illustrates how small perturbations can yield large, unpredictable consequences — an effect popularly described as the “Butterfly Effect”¹.

In climate science, General Circulation Models (GCMs) represent these interconnections, incorporating feedback loops between temperature, pressure, humidity, and energy flow. Because these systems are nonlinear and teleconnected, small local perturbations can propagate into large-scale global shifts². Despite inherent unpredictability, model-based projections have successfully anticipated long-term trends in global temperature and carbon flux — though with recognized uncertainty in rate and magnitude.

2. The Nonlinear Acceleration Hypothesis

In the early 1990s, we proposed the nonlinear acceleration hypothesis — the idea that climate change impacts do not increase linearly, but exponentially, through self-reinforcing feedback loops³. By the early 2000s, multiple independent studies had validated this framework, establishing it as part of the broader consensus in climate dynamics^4,5.

Our analysis shows that the doubling time of observable impacts — heat extremes, wildfire frequency, and ice loss — has fallen from approximately 100 years (pre-industrial) to ~10 years by 2000 and to <2 years by 2024. If this exponential trend continues, the cumulative impact could increase sixty-fourfold within a decade, even assuming constant emissions. This acceleration signals a system entering chaotic instability.

3. Record-Breaking 2024: Earth Breaches the 1.5°C Threshold

According to the World Meteorological Organization (2025) and Global Carbon Project (2025), the year 2024 marked an unprecedented convergence of climate records^6,7. Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reached 422.7 ppm, the highest in 3 million years, with a record annual increase of 3.75 ppm. Monthly values peaked at 426.91 ppm in June 2024.

Simultaneously, global fossil fuel and cement emissions rose to 37.4 gigatons of CO₂, a 0.8% increase from 2023. The rise was driven primarily by coal use in Asia, post-pandemic industrial expansion, and increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) production — particularly from the United States⁸. Methane leakage from LNG infrastructure, over 80 times more potent than CO₂ over 20 years⁹, has sharply reduced the supposed climate benefit of natural gas.

This record convergence signals a phase transition in the Earth system: as warming accelerates, natural feedbacks that once stabilized climate are now amplifying it.

4. Collapse of Carbon Sinks

For millennia, forests, soils, and oceans absorbed roughly half of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions¹⁰. By 2024, multiple datasets confirmed that major carbon sinks — notably the Amazon Basin, boreal forests, and Arctic permafrost — have shifted from net absorbers to net emitters^11–13.

Ozone pollution, drought, and pests weaken trees’ photosynthetic capacity; wildfires, intensified by heat and aridity, release billions of tons of CO₂ annually¹⁴. In the Arctic, thawing permafrost releases methane and CO₂, sometimes reigniting “zombie fires” through winter¹⁵. In the oceans, coral die-offs and reduced vertical mixing from a slowing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) limit carbon sequestration and nutrient flow¹⁶.

This collective degradation represents a systemic feedback reversal — the transformation of natural carbon sinks into carbon sources — driving an escalating and largely self-sustaining cycle of warming.

5. Cascading Feedbacks: The Domino Effect

Climate feedback loops do not act independently; rather, they interact synergistically in what we term the Domino Effect — a cascade of tipped tipping points where each system failure accelerates the next¹⁷.

For example, rising heat intensifies wildfires and particulate pollution, which alters atmospheric chemistry and reduces photosynthesis; decreased plant uptake increases CO₂ concentrations, driving further heat. Similarly, sea level rise and loss of glacial mass amplify coastal erosion, migration, and economic instability — reinforcing social and political feedbacks that delay mitigation.

This emergent behavior exemplifies a complex adaptive system entering runaway disequilibrium — one that can only be described probabilistically.

6. Human and Economic Implications

The social and economic consequences of accelerating warming are becoming immediate and measurable.

A Scientific Reports study (January 2025) found that in half of 38 global cities, annual heat-related deaths will exceed COVID-19 mortality rates within a decade if warming reaches 3°C¹⁸. A Nature Reviews Earth & Environment paper (February 2025) projected that at 2°C, global land area where human thermoregulation becomes impossible will triple¹⁹.

Economic analyses by the First Street Foundation (2025) estimate $1.47 trillion in U.S. property devaluation by 2055 due to flooding and extreme weather²⁰. Boston Consulting Group (2025) calculates that failing to limit warming from 3°C to 2°C would cost the world 11–27% of total GDP²¹.

Beyond these, secondary and indirect feedbacks are emerging: cooling of the upper atmosphere extends orbital debris lifetime²²; sleep disorders linked to rising temperatures may triple²³; and wildfire-driven PM_2.5 exposure could cause 98,000 annual excess deaths in the U.S. by 2050²⁴.

Even cultural systems are at risk: by 2050, 14 of 16 FIFA World Cup stadiums will face “unsafe” extreme heat, with two-thirds of grassroots football fields already crossing climate risk thresholds²⁵.

7. Toward a Unified Framework

Our ensemble-based probabilistic climate model integrates socio-economic, ecological, and biogeophysical feedbacks within a nonlinear dynamical system. The results indicate that global temperatures are on course to become unsustainable within this century, far surpassing earlier projections of a 4°C rise over a millennium²⁶.

The transition from a stable Holocene equilibrium to a runaway Anthropocene trajectory is characterized by compounding, interdependent feedbacks across multiple systems — thermal, hydrological, biological, and societal.

8. Conclusion: A Closing Window

The events of 2024–2025 reveal the limits of incremental mitigation. Stabilizing Earth’s climate now demands more than emission reductions — it requires active carbon removal, ecosystem restoration, and an immediate global phase-out of fossil fuels.

As the planet’s natural stabilizers fail, humanity faces a critical juncture: continue deferring action or act decisively to preserve habitability. The evidence is unequivocal — the feedback loops have tipped, the tipping points have cascaded, and the window for prevention is rapidly closing.

* Our probabilistic, ensemble-based climate model — which incorporates complex socio-economic and ecological feedback loops within a dynamic, nonlinear system — projects that global temperatures are becoming unsustainable this century. This far exceeds earlier estimates of a 4°C rise over the next thousand years, highlighting a dramatic acceleration in global warming. We are now entering a phase of compound, cascading collapse, where climate, ecological, and societal systems destabilize through interlinked, self-reinforcing feedback loops.